PD5003 Real Estate Investment Using Options: Oracle’s Optquest and PredictorInstructor: Charles J.Conrick IV
This course will build on and expand the learner’s experience using Oracle’s Crystal Ball by demonstrating and experimenting with optimization of models under varying conditions of uncertainty using OptQuest and Predictor features of Crystal Ball. It also will enable learners to use various option trade positions using real estate ETF’s to manage risk as well as maximize returns. This is a course that would expand on specific modelling courses. PD5001 and PD5002
This course will permit the learner to understand how, when and where to use Options: Oracle's Optquest and Predictor" with Crystal Ball software modelling to complete various Real Estate computations and will allow the learner to generate simulations involving rent, risk and return on real estate investment, analysis of options using RWR(SPDR Dow jones REIT), VNQ(Vanguard REIT Index0 contrasted with SPY(S&P500). An advanced look at a hypothetical model will allow higher levels of application of modelling tools in a Real Estate context. This course will provide the necessary information and practice to understand and produce modelling using a variety of software tools.
Pre-requisite courses or specified entry requirements
PD5001 and PD5002 are recommended prerequisites
Lecture 1 - Introduction to Real Estate Modelling using OptQuest and Predictor
a. Introduction to OptQuest and Predictor using example spreadsheets based on real estate related examples.
Lecture 2 - More Practice with OptQuest and Predictor.
a. Advanced examples of usage using OptQuest and Predictor in rents, interpretation of results, statistical analysis
Lecture 3 - Real Estate Investment using Options: Part I
a. Introduction of Risk / return on Real estate investment correlated in markets
b. Introduction to Options on Real Estate using traded ETF’s to provide understanding of systemic and un-systemic risk management using Options
Lecture 4 - Real Estate Investment using Options: Part II.
a. Analysis of Options trades to predict and optimize return and risk
b. Set up Calls and Puts using indices of major markets on a basic brokerage platform.
Lecture 5 - Real Estate Investment using Options: Part III
a. Bull and Bear spreads using indices covered in lesson 4
b. Straddles and Strangles using indices covered in lesson 4
Lecture 6 - Real Estate Investment using Options: Part IV
a. Collars using indices to hedge risk
b. Use Predictor to forecast trends on assets
c. Use OptQuest to review optimal portfolio allocations under varying assumptions.
Lecture 7 - Real Estate Investment using Options: Part V
a. Review of simulated trades placed in Lesson 4 (Calls and Puts).
b. Use Predictor and OptQuest to formulate targeted position and revise portfolio to any new economic conditions since trades were made.
Lecture 8 - Individual project analysis using OptQuest and Predictor Part I
a. A more advanced look at a hypothetical problem on an individual real estate project such as purchase of an Apartment Building with further use of OptQuest and Predictor to analyze unsystematic risks and potential return under varying assumptions.
Lecture 9 - Individual project analysis using OptQuest and Predictor Part II
a. Continuation and finalization of hypothetical project discussed in Lesson Eight
Lecture 10 - Review and Summary of OptQuest and Predictor
a. A brief review of all previous subjects.
b. Examples of OptQuest and Predictor on a number of other applications to solidify understanding of the two tools.